Left
Right
| Assumption | Author baseline | Doomsday |
|---|---|---|
| To singularity | 5 years 116 days | 2 years 343 days |
| To the first catastrophe | 15 years 58 days | 5 years 2 days |
| Minutes to midnight | 3.5 | 0.4 |
| Local by 2050 | 67.2% | 98.8% |
| Regional by 2050 | 29.8% | 81.6% |
| Global by 2050 | 10.6% | 49.6% |
| Global by 2100 | 20.1% | 81.6% |
| Expected deaths by 2050 | 269.7M | 1.3B |
| Expected damage by 2050 | $34T | $158T |
| Horizon doubling time | 129 d | 89 d |
| Trend bend | 0 %/yr | 0 %/yr |
| Real-world friction | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| Singularity threshold | 50 % | 50 % |
| Misuse pressure | 40 / 100 | 50 / 100 |
| Control-failure pressure | 20 / 100 | 75 / 100 |
| Mitigation strength | 45 / 100 | 10 / 100 |
| Current wiring into critical systems | 12 / 100 | 20 / 100 |
| Time to deployment saturation | 12 yr | 6 yr |
| Window of vulnerability | 25 yr | 60 yr |
Cumulative probability: two scenarios overlaid
Colour belongs to the rung, not to the column: a solid and a dashed line of the same colour are the same quantity under different assumptions. Two different colours would read as two different quantities.
Local: Author baseline 67.2%, Doomsday 98.8% by 2050. Regional: Author baseline 29.8%, Doomsday 81.6% by 2050. Global: Author baseline 10.6%, Doomsday 49.6% by 2050
LocalRegionalGlobalAuthor baselineDoomsday
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