A half-joking forecasting apparatus · v1.0.0 Русский
The Singularity Clock and the Ladder of Catastrophes
Two countdowns derived from a single extrapolation: METR's autonomous task horizon. Everything below is a formalised judgement, not a measurement of the future. Move the sliders: if a date shifts by twenty years that easily, it was never a forecast.
Preset
To singularity
5 years 341 days
07:15:02
Date: July 25, 2032. The moment AI overtakes the median professional in 50% of 30 kinds of activity. Already passed: 7%.
To the first catastrophe of any level
15 years 23 days
08:18:29
Date: September 10, 2041. Median date of the first event at the local level or worse. This is not the end of the world — it is the bottom rung of the ladder.
The Doomsday Clock, recomputed by the model
11 minutes 57 seconds
to midnight. Scale: 15 minutes means global catastrophe is ruled out, midnight means it is certain. The model currently gives 20.3% for the global level through 2100.
●Serious
Expected value by 2050
269.8M
expected deaths: summed over three levels, probability × geometric mean of the range
$34T
expected direct damage in 2026 dollars
Separately, and without irony. This apparatus does not predict the future and cannot. An event that has never occurred has no training sample, no validation, and no way to tell a good model from a pretty one. All that happens here is that assumptions get laid out so you can see which one carries the whole load. If the control-failure slider moves the global date by forty years and the doubling-time slider moves it by five, then the argument is about the first one. That is the entire value; the dates are a by-product.