Assumptions about speed
METR: 196 days across the full sample since 2019, 131 days counting from 2023, 89 days from 2024.
How much more optimistic the benchmark is than life: power grids, chips, data, regulators, human inertia. 1.0 means the chart is reality.
What share of the 30 kinds of activity must be passed before a date is declared.
The autonomous task horizon and its extrapolation
Points are METR estimates (pre-2025 approximate, methodology TH1/TH1.1). The line is anchored at the latest point and drawn from your doubling time — it is not fitted to history, which is why it diverges from the early points. The scale is logarithmic: a straight line is an exponential.
Anchor 5.3 h, doubling time 236 days. The selected threshold of 1 mo is reached in Jan 2029.
The chart is keyboard focusable: arrows move the cursor, Shift jumps ten years, Esc clears it.
By kind of cognitive activity
By industry and profession
How each row gets its date
дата = t₀ + D · log₂(коэф · порог · надёжность / H₀) + лаг
METR's horizon is measured on software engineering tasks. Everything else gets a difficulty coefficient relative to that base — how many times longer a chain of reasoning the domain demands — and a deployment lag in years: the time for hardware, capital, trust and regulators after the capability technically exists. The coefficients are the author's expert judgement. This is the weakest point of the whole construction, and it is exactly where you will most likely want to argue. That is the intent.