A half-joking forecasting apparatus · v1.0.0 Русский
"Apocalypse" is not an event but a scale. Three thresholds, each with its own criterion, its own probability and its own dominant mechanism: human malice rules the bottom of the ladder, control failure the top. The model computes not a date but a risk intensity, and from it a cumulative probability and a median date.
How readily people will turn available capability to harm. The main driver of the bottom rung.
The system does something other than what it was deployed for at a critical moment, and it cannot be rolled back. The main driver of the top rung.
Regulation, audit, kill switches, treaties. Works worse on the top rung: you have to prevent something that has never happened.
What share of energy, finance, logistics, weapons and medicine is already handed to autonomous loops.
How many years it takes for wiring to reach its ceiling.
Once capability plateaus, the world learns to live with it and risk decays over this period. Set it to 100 and it never decays.
Each rung is the probability of an event at that level or worse, so the bottom rung always sits above the top one. 34% local includes the 3% global, it does not replace it.
≥ 1,000 dead or ≥ $10bn in damage. One city, one network, one company.
Sep 2041 median
P by 2035 29.6% · 2050 67.7% · 2100 88.6%
deaths 1K–100K · damage $10.0B–$100.0B
Failure of an autonomous loop in regional infrastructure; a model-assisted attack on an organisation’s network; a laboratory incident.
≥ 1 million dead or ≥ $1tn. National infrastructure failure that takes years to undo.
Dec 2096 median
P by 2035 9.1% · 2050 29.9% · 2100 50.4%
deaths 1M–100M · damage $1.0T–$10T
Cascading failure of financial and energy systems; conflict escalation with AI inside the decision loop; biological risk amplified by access to design tools.
≥ 10% of the world population, or humanity irreversibly losing control of its own future.
> 2100 P < 50% within the horizon
P by 2035 2.5% · 2050 10.6% · 2100 20.3%
deaths 800M–8B · damage $100T–$1000T
Control failure in a system wired into every critical loop at once; irreversible concentration of power; a scenario nobody described in advance — which is what makes it global.
Cumulative probability of an event at each level
P(an event at this level or worse has occurred by year t), counting from today. Each curve includes everything above it on the ladder, so the bottom rung always sits above the top one. The plateau on the right follows from the window of vulnerability: survive the transition and risk falls.
Cumulative probability by 2050 and 2100: Local: 67.7% by 2050, 88.6% by 2100. Regional: 29.9% by 2050, 50.4% by 2100. Global: 10.6% by 2050, 20.3% by 2100.
The chart is keyboard focusable: arrows move the cursor, Shift jumps ten years, Esc clears it.
Expected value by 2050
269.8M
expected deaths: summed over three levels, probability × geometric mean of the range
$34T
expected direct damage in 2026 dollars
λᵢ(t) = (умысел·wᵢ + отказ контроля·uᵢ) · cᵢ(t) · d(t) · (1 − митигация·eᵢ) · aᵢ(t)
cᵢ(t) is capability: a logistic function of the log horizon relative to the rung threshold. d(t) is wiring, a saturating exponential. eᵢ is the mitigation ceiling: 0.80 local, 0.60 regional, 0.45 global. aᵢ(t) is decay after capability saturation. Result: P = 1 − exp(−∫λ dt), integrated in yearly steps.
Note that a product of four multipliers, each of which you set by eye, yields a quantity accurate to an order of magnitude at best. Every decimal place in these dates is a polite lie told by the interface.