Left
Right
| Assumption | Baseline | Doomsday |
|---|---|---|
| To singularity | 5 years 341 days | 3 years 10 days |
| To the first catastrophe | 15 years 23 days | 5 years 9 days |
| Minutes to midnight | 12 | 2.8 |
| Expected deaths by 2050 | 269.8M | 1.3B |
| Expected damage by 2050 | $34T | $159T |
| Horizon doubling time | 131 d | 89 d |
| Real-world friction | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| Singularity threshold | 50 % | 50 % |
| Share of malicious use | 40 % | 50 % |
| Probability of control failure | 20 % | 75 % |
| Mitigation effectiveness | 45 % | 10 % |
| Current wiring into critical systems | 12 % | 20 % |
| Time to deployment saturation | 12 yr | 6 yr |
| Window of vulnerability | 25 yr | 60 yr |
Cumulative probability: two scenarios overlaid
Colour belongs to the rung, not to the column: a solid and a dashed line of the same colour are the same quantity under different assumptions. Two different colours would read as two different quantities.
Local: Baseline 67.7%, Doomsday 98.8% by 2050. Regional: Baseline 29.9%, Doomsday 81.6% by 2050. Global: Baseline 10.6%, Doomsday 49.6% by 2050
LocalRegionalGlobalBaselineDoomsday
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